The Price of a Deal: Why discounting may be solving the wrong problem

Black Week is unlike any other moment in the retail calendar. For one concentrated week, shopping behavior changes. Deal alerts flood inboxes. Comparison tabs multiply. The entire market seems to hold its breath for discounts.

It's easy to assume this changes what people are willing to pay. That the deal-hunting mindset compresses price expectations. That demand shifts downward across the board. But does it?

We wanted to know what actually happens to willingness to pay when buyers enter "Black Week mode."

How we tested

We ran willingness-to-pay studies using Price Check study for three product categories. Each category was tested twice: once under general buying conditions, once under a Black Week purchase frame. Same methodology, same screener, same product description.

Wireless Earbuds: General (n=110), Black Week (n=106)
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Sneakers: General (n=108), Black Week (n=107)
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Air Fryers: General (n=110), Black Week (n=111)

All respondents were screened for active purchase intent. This means the data reflects how real in-market buyers think about price, not how the general population feels about a category.

The results

Look at the premium end of the curves. At $250-299, something unexpected happens: demand is higher during Black Week than under general conditions.

For earbuds, demand at $250 moves from 35% to 37%. At $299, from 27% to 31%. Sneakers show an even stronger effect: at $250, demand rises from 24% to 31%. At $300, it jumps from 16% to 27%, an increase of 11 percentage points.

The revenue data tells the same story. For earbuds, the revenue-maximizing price shifts from $200 during general conditions to $299 during Black Week. Higher demand at premium prices means the optimal price point moves up, not down.

The exception: Air fryers

Air fryers tell a different story. At $250, demand dropped from 34% to 26%, a decline of 8 percentage points. Premium demand weakened during Black Week, the opposite of what we saw with earbuds and sneakers.

Why the difference? One possibility: air fryers are utilitarian. You buy one to cook food, not to make a statement. Earbuds and sneakers are lifestyle purchases. Products where "treating yourself" makes sense. Black Week may create permission to upgrade for aspirational products, while that effect may not apply to purely functional ones. But this is one study, one category. The pattern is worth noting, not a universal rule.

What it means

What if Black Week doesn't just attract bargain hunters? What if it attracts buyers, including people who want the good stuff?

The assumption that deal season compresses willingness to pay may be incomplete. Yes, Black Week brings people looking for discounts. But it may also bring people who have been waiting for the right moment to buy something nice.

For earbuds and sneakers, the "deal seeker" frame appears to coexist with buyers who are willing to pay more, something retailers may be underestimating.

As we'll see, broader industry research points in the same direction.

What this means for pricing strategy

Here's the uncomfortable context: McKinsey research found that 59-72% of trade promotions lose money. Nielsen found that roughly three-quarters of CPG promotions don't break even. Simon-Kucher identifies 30-40% as outright "value destroyers" with negative ROI.

Most of these failures share a common root: the assumption that discounting automatically creates incremental demand. It doesn't. A discount only works if it unlocks buyers who wouldn't have purchased at the original price. If it simply reprices demand that was already there, it's a margin transfer, not a revenue driver.

Our data suggests Black Week may not be what most people think it is. The standard assumption is that deal season brings discount-hungry shoppers—buyers whose willingness to pay compresses because they're waiting for a bargain. That's the frame that drives reflexive deep discounting.

But what if Black Week is primarily a buying occasion, not a discount event? What if the season itself triggers purchases that wouldn't otherwise happen—not because the price dropped, but because the moment arrived?

Look at the demand curves for earbuds and sneakers: willingness to pay at premium price points doesn't collapse during Black Week. In some ranges, it strengthens. The buyers entering the market during deal season aren't all looking for the cheapest option. Some appear willing to pay more than buyers in a normal period.

That changes the strategic question entirely. If Black Week brings incremental buyers—people who weren't going to purchase otherwise—then the race to the bottom may be solving a problem that doesn't exist. The occasion itself may be doing the work that discounts are supposed to do.

This doesn't mean discounts are always wrong. For some categories (air fryers, in our data), the traditional pattern holds. But the blanket assumption that deal season requires deep discounting deserves more scrutiny. The occasion may be the draw. The discount may just be the expected wrapper.

What the broader research shows

Our findings aren't isolated. Recent industry research points in the same direction.

A 2025 BCG consumer survey found that 44% of shoppers planned to shift part of their budget toward higher-priced discretionary items during year-end sales—a notable increase from the prior year. Simon-Kucher found that the holiday spending increase is driven primarily by higher-income households, suggesting a "trade-up" effect rather than a race to the bottom.

Sales data tells a similar story. Salesforce data reported by Retail Dive found that luxury apparel and accessories were among the top-performing categories for Black Friday 2025—not the budget segments you'd expect if deal season were purely about discounts.

The pattern is consistent: Black Week appears to bring buyers who are ready to spend—not just buyers hunting for the lowest price.

The bigger picture

The conventional wisdom about Black Week is simple: shoppers are hunting for deals, so you'd better have one. The assumption is that the season compresses willingness to pay. That buyers who might spend $150 in October will only spend $100 in November unless you give them a reason.

Our data tells a different story. For two of three categories tested, Black Week didn't compress willingness to pay at premium price points. It increased it. The buyers showing up during deal season weren't uniformly looking to spend less. Some were willing to spend more.

Black Week may not be a discount event. It may be a buying event.

If the occasion itself is what triggers the purchase, not the discount, then the reflexive race to deep markdowns is solving a problem that may not exist. The season creates the urgency. The discount may just be the expected format.

This doesn't mean discounting is wrong. For some products, the traditional pattern holds. But for others, the assumption that deal season requires a deal may be costing more than it gains. The question isn't "how deep should we go?" It's "what's actually driving the purchase—the price or the moment?"

These findings come from three categories in one market, so they're not universal rules. But they raise a possibility worth testing: Black Week might not compress the demand curve. It might shift who's on it.

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A note on methodology: Studies conducted using Priceagent's Price Check study type. Respondents were screened for active purchase intent in each category. Each category was tested twice: once under general buying conditions and once under a Black Week purchase frame.

Explore the full studies results: Earbuds (General) | Earbuds (Black Week) | Sneakers (General) | Sneakers (Black Week) | Air Fryer (General) | Air Fryer (Black Week)